Solar flare forecast

Last update: Tue Jan 23 15:21:56 2024 UTC

Power spectrum

Intermittency spectrum
HARP#

Lat., deg.

Lon., deg.

Flux, 10^21 Mx

Slope

Expected FI

Slope

Expected FI
9489 S22 W65 18.70 2.13 60.77 -0.11 2.74
9493 N07 W54 8.70 1.68 0.01 -0.32 4.18
9501 S15 W35 34.11 1.82 3.86 -0.61 7.43
9512 N16 W17 6.13 1.30 0.00 -0.27 3.76
9515 S22 W09 1.85 1.06 0.00 -0.33 4.29
9520 N12 W35 0.57 1.23 0.00 -0.32 4.16
9521 N26 E03 46.29 1.73 0.47 -0.32 4.16
9523 S10 E00 6.01 1.36 0.00 -0.47 5.60
9525 N27 W21 2.50 1.40 0.00 -0.27 3.75
9536 S19 W20 0.14 1.38 0.00 -0.46 5.53
9544 S08 W48 6.76 1.89 9.26 -0.99 15.58
9552 S16 W57 0.80 2.17 74.94 -0.69 8.60
9554 S29 W18 0.14 1.28 0.00 -0.64 7.86
9558 N23 E29 0.58 1.80 2.61 -0.13 2.85

The forecast uses SDO/HMI ( Pesnell et al., 2012 , Schou et al., 2012 ) SHARP_NRT ( Bobra et al., 2014 ) data to calculate the power spectrum and intermittency spectrum of active regions currently observed on the Sun.

The power spectrum method was developed by Dr. V. Abramenko. The details of the calculation can be found in Abramenko et al. (2001) . The slope of the power spectrum (spectral index) is calculated for each HARP within 2.7-10 Mm inertial range. The flare index (FI) is estimated as FI = 409.5(α - 5/3)2.49 , where α is the spectral index. See Abramenko (2005) for details.

The intermittency spectrum method was developed by Dr. V. Abramenko. The details of the calculation can be found in Abramenko & Yurchyshyn (2010) . The slope of the flatness function is calculated for each HARP within 3-20 Mm spatial range. The flare index (FI) is estimated as FI = 10(-0.86κ + 0.34) , where κ is the slope of the flatness function.

Interpretation of the flare index (FI) value ( Abramenko, 2005): FI = 1: The active region produces C1.0 flare each day; FI = 10: The active region produces M1.0 flare each day; FI = 100: The active region produces X1.0 flare each day.

SDO is a mission for NASA Living With a Star (LWS) program. The SDO/HMI data are provided by the Joint Science Operation Center JSOC .

The forecast was developed with the support by the Russian Science Foundation (Project 19-72-00027).